Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Judge Richard Posner . . . a Keynesian?

At the New Republic, Judge Richard Posner has confessed how the current financial crisis has caused him to become more attuned to the ideas of John Maynard Keynes and his vision of an interventionist economic policy where the government uses fiscal and monetary tools to counteract the cyclical--and, as this recent economic crisis perhaps illustrates, unpredictable--business cycle. As Judge Posner writes:
We have learned since September that the present generation of economists has not figured out how the economy works. The vast majority of them were blindsided by the housing bubble and the ensuing banking crisis; and misjudged the gravity of the economic downturn that resulted; and were perplexed by the inability of orthodox monetary policy administered by the Federal Reserve to prevent such a steep downturn; and could not agree on what, if anything, the government should do to halt it and put the economy on the road to recovery.
Central to Keynes' theory--the reason behind the now-apparent recovery, as the Judge writes--is that consumption is, after all, "the sole and end object of all economic activity." Sparing complicated mathematic explanations, this is partly because passive investments (i.e., income not necessarily infused into productive activity, but derived from savings) theoretically take some time to stimulate economic growth. Alternatively, active investments create income and essentially form what Keynes calls a "multiplier effect," further increasing the "incomes of people . . . on the receiving end [of any initial income spent on a given product]." Judge Posner uses this example:
When I buy a bottle of wine, the cost to me is income to the seller, and what he spends out of that income will be income to someone else, and so on. So the active investment that produced the income with which I bought the wine will have had a chain-reaction--what Keynes calls a "multiplier"--effect.
Consumption, in Keynes' theory, is the driving force of economic growth. And, as the Judge explains in this article, the government must effectively counterbalance times when consumption is lacking and hoarding is rampant. From this vantage point, Judge Posner notes that "[b]y now a majority of economists are in general agreement with the Obama administration's exceedingly Keynesian strategy for digging the economy out of its deep hole."

Keynes' theory, of course, presupposes business cycles. However, I have rarely seen consideration given to the structural imbalances in the capital structure of our economy. Many economists, in fact, quite convincingly show that reckless monetary policy obfuscates real interest rates, creating distortions in long-term demand for capital. In addition, persistent bailout guarantees and a hyper-expanding credit market have created perverse incentives for private market actors. Put another way, these instances may in some respect be attributed to bad government policy. So a question I must ask is that, even if Keynes' theory solves the structural distortions of the business cycle--a point which I am admittedly not equipped to debate--are there other policy measures directed at resolving potential core causes of the financial crisis that should be taken into account before we grant the government a medal of honor?

Check out Judge Posner's article.

225 comments:

  1. im sorry...since when did we start caring what posner thought about economics? The guy is a judge, not an econonmist

    ReplyDelete
  2. to #1 - Posner is responsible for the huge influence of economics on the law. His thoughts tend to resonate throughout the legal community. (Check out how many times Economic Analysis of Law has been cited since 73).

    I guess Nixon was right, "We're all Keynesians now"

    ReplyDelete
  3. 1 = Ignorant hillbilly.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Anybody else think it's a bit premature to congratulate our government on its handling of this credit crisis? I believe what we just witnessed in 07-09 was the "multiplier effect" of people consuming stuff with debt. Our government is not immune from the rule that you can only consume what you can't afford for so long...

    ReplyDelete
  5. In response to the question you posed at the end of your post: I think the obvious missing piece in the government's response (so far) is the failure to implement meaningful regulatory reform. A clear core cause of the financial crisis was a regulatory system that presupposed rational behavior by fully informed individuals. Unfortunately, irrationality pervades human behavior and information asymmetries are abundant in financial market-related transactions. Maintaining a regulatory system that ignores these realities is a recipe for repeating our recent calamity. Unfortunately, with the stock market surprising everyone and the Obama administration focused on healthcare reform, the momentum behind regulatory reform is fading. Regulatory turf wars and ideological battles are drowning out rational, informed debate (big surprise). Hopefully leadership will emerge to ensure progress is made. Only with the rules of the market properly defined can capitalism work properly and provide opportunity to the greatest number of people.

    ReplyDelete
  6. -- @ 11:09

    There is a lot of merit to what you're saying. I suppose regulatory measures--in a lot of ways, similar to corrective keynsian measures--also presuppose that the "only" problem with the financial crisis rests with the private sector, or the fact that "irrationality pervades human behavior and information asymmetries are abundant. . . ." My question was meant to also stimulate discussion on whether distortions in the economy's capital structure--which can almost all be attributed to government fiscal and monetary policy--essentially set the foundation upon which this "irrationality" thrived. That is, while I realize there were problems at every level, perhaps by focusing solely on the private sector, we are ignoring the core illness of distorted demand for long-term capital.

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  7. Nima:

    I see what you're saying. But before I go any further, I want to make sure we're on the same page. When you say that "reckless monetary policy obfuscates real interest rates, creating distortions in long-term demand for capital," do you mean that the Fed's tendency to quickly drop rates to very low levels (zero now, 1% during Greenspan) incentivizes investors to borrow heavily despite actual ability to repay because they know that they'll effectively be bailed out when the Fed provides easy money in the future (giving them the money to either pay off their debts or refinance them)? And following from this, fiscal policy would contribute to this distortion because investors would expect fiscal stimulus to bail them out as well.

    As for the economy's capital structure, are you referring to the large amounts of public debt funded by foreign (mainly Chinese) capital?

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  136. I actually do consider all the ideas you’ve introduced to this post. They are quite convincing and can certainly perform. Still, your posts are extremely short for newbies. May just an individual please prolong them a lttle bit from the next time?


    Thank you for the particular post..;)

    ReplyDelete
  137. I actually do consider all the ideas you’ve introduced to this post. They are quite convincing and can certainly perform. Still, your posts are extremely short for newbies. May just an individual please prolong them a lttle bit from the next time?


    Thank you for the particular post..;)

    ReplyDelete
  138. I actually do consider all the ideas you’ve introduced to this post. They are quite convincing and can certainly perform. Still, your posts are extremely short for newbies. May just an individual please prolong them a lttle bit from the next time?


    Thank you for the particular post..;)

    ReplyDelete
  139. I actually do consider all the ideas you’ve introduced to this post. They are quite convincing and can certainly perform. Still, your posts are extremely short for newbies. May just an individual please prolong them a lttle bit from the next time?


    Thank you for the particular post..;)

    ReplyDelete
  140. I actually do consider all the ideas you’ve introduced to this post. They are quite convincing and can certainly perform. Still, your posts are extremely short for newbies. May just an individual please prolong them a lttle bit from the next time?


    Thank you for the particular post..;)

    ReplyDelete
  141. I actually do consider all the ideas you’ve introduced to this post. They are quite convincing and can certainly perform. Still, your posts are extremely short for newbies. May just an individual please prolong them a lttle bit from the next time?


    Thank you for the particular post..;)

    ReplyDelete
  142. I like to check out your site a couple times a week for new readings. I was wondering if you have any other topics you write about.

    ReplyDelete
  143. I like to check out your site a couple times a week for new readings. I was wondering if you have any other topics you write about. ;)

    ReplyDelete
  144. I actually do consider all the ideas you have introduced to this post. They are quite convincing and can certainly perform. Still, your posts are extremely short for newbies. May just an individual please prolong them a lttle bit from the next time?


    Thank you for the particular post.

    ReplyDelete
  145. The crux of your writing while sounding agreeable in the beginning, did not work very well with me personally after some time. 

    ReplyDelete
  146. I like to check out your site a couple times a week for new readings.

    ReplyDelete
  147. I do love the manner in which you have presented this particular situation plus it does indeed give me personally some fodder for consideration. 

    ReplyDelete
  148. i had to go through it again since i could not grab the entire escence of the post in one go.That was a very articulate and logical point you make there.I appreciate you letting me know your thinking on this.

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  184. You are so gifted! Count yourself lucky.

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  186. I agree completely with everything you have said.

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