We have learned since September that the present generation of economists has not figured out how the economy works. The vast majority of them were blindsided by the housing bubble and the ensuing banking crisis; and misjudged the gravity of the economic downturn that resulted; and were perplexed by the inability of orthodox monetary policy administered by the Federal Reserve to prevent such a steep downturn; and could not agree on what, if anything, the government should do to halt it and put the economy on the road to recovery.Central to Keynes' theory--the reason behind the now-apparent recovery, as the Judge writes--is that consumption is, after all, "the sole and end object of all economic activity." Sparing complicated mathematic explanations, this is partly because passive investments (i.e., income not necessarily infused into productive activity, but derived from savings) theoretically take some time to stimulate economic growth. Alternatively, active investments create income and essentially form what Keynes calls a "multiplier effect," further increasing the "incomes of people . . . on the receiving end [of any initial income spent on a given product]." Judge Posner uses this example:
When I buy a bottle of wine, the cost to me is income to the seller, and what he spends out of that income will be income to someone else, and so on. So the active investment that produced the income with which I bought the wine will have had a chain-reaction--what Keynes calls a "multiplier"--effect.Consumption, in Keynes' theory, is the driving force of economic growth. And, as the Judge explains in this article, the government must effectively counterbalance times when consumption is lacking and hoarding is rampant. From this vantage point, Judge Posner notes that "[b]y now a majority of economists are in general agreement with the Obama administration's exceedingly Keynesian strategy for digging the economy out of its deep hole."
Keynes' theory, of course, presupposes business cycles. However, I have rarely seen consideration given to the structural imbalances in the capital structure of our economy. Many economists, in fact, quite convincingly show that reckless monetary policy obfuscates real interest rates, creating distortions in long-term demand for capital. In addition, persistent bailout guarantees and a hyper-expanding credit market have created perverse incentives for private market actors. Put another way, these instances may in some respect be attributed to bad government policy. So a question I must ask is that, even if Keynes' theory solves the structural distortions of the business cycle--a point which I am admittedly not equipped to debate--are there other policy measures directed at resolving potential core causes of the financial crisis that should be taken into account before we grant the government a medal of honor?
Check out Judge Posner's article.
im sorry...since when did we start caring what posner thought about economics? The guy is a judge, not an econonmist
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ReplyDeleteI guess Nixon was right, "We're all Keynesians now"
1 = Ignorant hillbilly.
ReplyDelete3=Posner
ReplyDeleteAnybody else think it's a bit premature to congratulate our government on its handling of this credit crisis? I believe what we just witnessed in 07-09 was the "multiplier effect" of people consuming stuff with debt. Our government is not immune from the rule that you can only consume what you can't afford for so long...
ReplyDeleteIn response to the question you posed at the end of your post: I think the obvious missing piece in the government's response (so far) is the failure to implement meaningful regulatory reform. A clear core cause of the financial crisis was a regulatory system that presupposed rational behavior by fully informed individuals. Unfortunately, irrationality pervades human behavior and information asymmetries are abundant in financial market-related transactions. Maintaining a regulatory system that ignores these realities is a recipe for repeating our recent calamity. Unfortunately, with the stock market surprising everyone and the Obama administration focused on healthcare reform, the momentum behind regulatory reform is fading. Regulatory turf wars and ideological battles are drowning out rational, informed debate (big surprise). Hopefully leadership will emerge to ensure progress is made. Only with the rules of the market properly defined can capitalism work properly and provide opportunity to the greatest number of people.
ReplyDelete-- @ 11:09
ReplyDeleteThere is a lot of merit to what you're saying. I suppose regulatory measures--in a lot of ways, similar to corrective keynsian measures--also presuppose that the "only" problem with the financial crisis rests with the private sector, or the fact that "irrationality pervades human behavior and information asymmetries are abundant. . . ." My question was meant to also stimulate discussion on whether distortions in the economy's capital structure--which can almost all be attributed to government fiscal and monetary policy--essentially set the foundation upon which this "irrationality" thrived. That is, while I realize there were problems at every level, perhaps by focusing solely on the private sector, we are ignoring the core illness of distorted demand for long-term capital.
Nima:
ReplyDeleteI see what you're saying. But before I go any further, I want to make sure we're on the same page. When you say that "reckless monetary policy obfuscates real interest rates, creating distortions in long-term demand for capital," do you mean that the Fed's tendency to quickly drop rates to very low levels (zero now, 1% during Greenspan) incentivizes investors to borrow heavily despite actual ability to repay because they know that they'll effectively be bailed out when the Fed provides easy money in the future (giving them the money to either pay off their debts or refinance them)? And following from this, fiscal policy would contribute to this distortion because investors would expect fiscal stimulus to bail them out as well.
As for the economy's capital structure, are you referring to the large amounts of public debt funded by foreign (mainly Chinese) capital?
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ReplyDeleteYou have great perception and I will definitely be reading your other Blogs!
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ReplyDeleteI don't want to judge you but I think that you need to do a little bit more research on the matter.
ReplyDeleteWassup Dude?
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ReplyDeleteGreat content you have here.
ReplyDeleteI was looking for something like this and I am so glad that I finally found it.
ReplyDeleteYour explanation is the best I have seen so far.
ReplyDeleteI have information on this as well.
ReplyDeleteI like the image that you uploaded on your blog.
ReplyDeleteKeep on writing because this is the kind of stuff we all need.
ReplyDeleteThis Blog deserves far more attention than it is getting right now.
ReplyDeleteI always love the way that you explain things to others.
ReplyDeleteWonderful lens! Keep up the good work.
ReplyDeleteYour Hub is really valuable to the internet community.
ReplyDeleteYeh! Right! This is absolute nonsense.
ReplyDeleteI am new on this Blog and I just wanted to say "Hi" to everyone!
ReplyDeleteI loved the way that you described your experiences in the second paragraph.
ReplyDeleteI wish I had the ability to write as well as you do!
ReplyDeleteYou are so gifted! Count yourself lucky.
ReplyDeleteI guess that everyone has a right to express his or her opinions.
ReplyDeleteI agree completely with everything you have said.
ReplyDeleteThis is a difficult subject to understand.
ReplyDeleteWow. Looks like we have some intelligent people here!
ReplyDeleteHilarious! I've gotten so many of these on my blog.
ReplyDeleteLol, this was a unique hub! A great read - voted up and interesting!
ReplyDeleteYou forgot my "common" quote about the fact that "You Rock!"
ReplyDeleteI like it!
ReplyDelete